Inventory reconciliation
Reconcile annual flare estimates, stable site identities, coordinates and coastal/onshore assignment against validated administrative boundaries.
01 / RESEARCHER
About the author
The work brings together environmental GIS analysis and careful scientific reporting so that decision-makers and researchers can explore individual locations, understand screening criteria and identify questions requiring further field verification.
02 / POSITION
Why we carried out this study
The study evaluates satellite-estimated gas-flaring activity at individual reported sites over 2012–2025 and places selected onshore flare locations in the context of nearby modelled population and mapped mangrove cover.
The main aim is evidence-led screening for abatement investigation and environmental-monitoring design. Priority classifications do not establish operational responsibility, actual emissions, measured exposure, environmental damage or the feasibility of gas-recovery projects.
03 / SCOPE
Which places we studied
476Nigerian flare locations in source inventory
372Confirmed nine-state onshore screening sites
70Offshore sites, analysed separately
33Onshore/offshore classification conflicts
1Other Nigerian onshore site, outside the regional map extent
14Annual observation years (2012–2025)
Source coordinates and site identifiers are preserved. The offshore and conflicting records are not silently assigned to the 372-site analytical population. Cross River has no eligible records under the locked rules; that is not proof of an absence of flaring.
04 / METHODS
Analytical approach
Historical activity
Summarize cumulative and recent 2023–2025 satellite-estimated volumes, positive-volume years and reported zeros. A reported zero is not proof of flare elimination.
Environmental context
Use GHSL 2020 residential population estimates within 5 km of each eligible site and ESA WorldCover 2021 mapped mangrove area within 2 km. These are distinct screening indicators.
Priority rules & sensitivity
Apply transparent, distribution-based thresholds and test whether candidate selections survive stricter screening assumptions.
05 / RESULTS
Which places need further checks
34 HIGH
Abatement investigation candidates with top-decile recent-volume evidence and at least 10 positive-volume years.
41 ELEVATED
Additional qualifying abatement candidates meeting the documented P75 recent-volume and persistence gates.
4 WATCHLIST
Top-decile recent-volume sites with shorter positive-volume histories; retained without changing their priority class.
24 COMMUNITY
Independent monitoring-screening candidates based on flaring evidence and nearby GHSL 2020 population context.
7 ECOSYSTEM
Independent monitoring-screening candidates based on flaring evidence and nearby WorldCover 2021 mapped mangrove context.
Population counts and mangrove areas are not combined into a single risk score. The ecosystem list is particularly sensitive to the chosen thresholds and should be treated as exploratory.
06 / INTERPRETATION
What the results cannot prove
- Flare volume is a satellite-derived estimate, not a direct measurement of emissions, pollutant concentration or health outcomes.
- The GHSL 2020 and WorldCover 2021 datasets provide contextual snapshots, not conditions contemporaneous with every annual flare observation through 2025.
- Seven onshore sites contained GHSL
-200NoData raster values. These invalid cells were masked before the final population calculations. - Five-kilometre population buffers and two-kilometre mangrove buffers overlap. Their values must not be summed as unique people or unique habitat extent.
- Mapped mangrove proximity does not establish pollution exposure, damage, causation or ecological condition.
- No claims of operator liability, legal non-compliance or demonstrated gas-utilization feasibility are made.
07 / SOURCES
Data & attribution
Flare activity: World Bank Global Gas Flaring Tracker, individual flare-location estimates, 2012–2025 (June 2026 source vintage).
Administrative context: geoBoundaries gbOpen Nigeria ADM1 / GRID3 2022, CC BY 4.0, with eligibility safeguards for coastal classification conflicts.
Population context: European Commission Joint Research Centre, GHSL P2023A GHS-POP, epoch 2020.
Ecosystem context: ESA WorldCover v200, epoch 2021, mapped mangrove class 95.
Basemap: OpenStreetMap contributors; mapping interface uses Leaflet.
Refer to the complete scientific report for source provenance, processing details, QA and sensitivity results.
08 / REPRODUCIBILITY
Maps, report & downloadable evidence
The site includes five A3 maps, a scientific report, the 476-site inventory, the 372-site priority table and historical state summaries. Analytical classifications remain unchanged from the locked scientific stages.