Lokoja Flood Resilience

Flood history, flood-prone conditions and planning priorities

Lokoja, Kogi State

LOKOJA, NIGERIA · FLOOD HISTORY 2018–2024

Where is Lokoja more flood-prone, and where should protective action be investigated first?

Flooding can disrupt homes, roads and essential services. We compared satellite-observed floods, landscape conditions, and mapped people and infrastructure to identify places that may deserve attention.

Explore the maps
01 · WHAT WE STUDIED

Satellite flood observations for 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024, alongside terrain and water-related conditions.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Understanding where flood-prone conditions coincide with people and important infrastructure can guide further checks.

03 · WHAT WE FOUND

1,475 Critical or High planning units, covering approximately 476.98 km², retained high priority across the tested scenarios.

04 · WHAT IT HELPS US DO

Compare possible resilience actions and focus investigations—not predict flood depths or confirm future losses.

Consistently high-priority areas 1,475 600 m planning units · Critical and High across scenarios
Area in these priority units 476.98 km² Across tested planning scenarios
Modelled residents in these units 226,173 2020 WorldPop estimate, not confirmed flood victims
Mapped buildings in these units 87,726 Open Buildings estimate, not confirmed damage
Intervention priority
Loading Lokoja spatial data Preparing 9,833 planning units and evidence layers…

Project context

About this dashboard

This study examined where flooding has been observed in Lokoja, which areas have conditions associated with flooding, and where people, buildings and important routes may justify earlier resilience investigations. Satellite observations from four years were combined with a flood-susceptibility model and geographical planning evidence. This is not a live flood warning or a record of confirmed property damage.

4flood events
2018–2024
17terrain, water and land-cover predictors
0.839independent 2024 PR-AUC
96.64%2024 flood captured by Very High class

How to read the four maps

Where to act compares planning priorities. Possible actions groups locations by suggested investigation or response themes. Flood-prone areas shows relative modelled flood susceptibility, not an annual chance of flooding. Past floods shows individual satellite-observed flood years. Map symbols for roads, facilities and crossings are supporting context; their presence does not prove damage.

Intervention priority additionally considers modelled residents, mapped buildings, infrastructure and the observed 2024 flood evidence. The mapped population and buildings are not counts of people or structures confirmed affected. Neither flood susceptibility nor the planning score represents water depth, an annual flood probability, measured loss or a final engineering design. Field checks and engineering assessment remain necessary.

Data and tools

Sentinel-1, JRC Global Surface Water, Dynamic World, HydroSHEDS, WorldPop, Google Open Buildings and OpenStreetMap. Analysis used Google Earth Engine, ArcGIS Pro, Python and scikit-learn.

Author

Gabriel Bahago Samuel
GIS Analyst · MECON Services Ltd., Jos, Nigeria

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